The Low Pressure Area lying over South Bay and adjoining waters of Equatorial Bay intensified into a Well Marked Low last evening and is expected to futher intensify into a Depression today. It continues to track in a more WNW movement for most of its journey so far. As it intensifies into a Depression weather models expect the disturbance to shift its movement to a more Northward movement, the poleward movement influenced by the increasing intensify of the disturbance.
The disturbance has been a Roller Coaster so far for the weather enthusiasts and there is everything on the cards that indicate it will continue to trigger nail biting anxious moments right thorugh its life cycle due to the shear complexity of the various probabilities and associated impacts. Adding to the confusion is the delaying trend seen from day 1 of this disturbance throwing the model outputs, particularly precipitation estimates, out of the window.
What was expected to be a rainfall window starting from today is now seen extending well into 8th / 9th March due to the wide ranging possibilities. Not to forget the near dry weather estimated by some of the models like GEM, UKMet etc which are taking a more Northward track compared to rest of the models. In all this the Ensemble members of most leading models also call a potential stall scenario with no organized landfall expected which brings a different dynamics to the expected rainfall pattern. In this context we have tried to bring some bit of sense to the uncertainity without taking sides as things continue to remain extremely fluid in terms of the end game for this Well Marked Low. One of the key points taken into account while making this assesement is Quadrant Behavior of Tropical Disturbances based on the potential track thereyby creating the Impact Zone Matrix for Tamil Nadu & adjoining areas.
Additionally we have also provided an indicative expected rainfall pattern as well though due to the above mentioned fluid dynamics the confidence level on the estimated rainfall pattern is low.We wil continue to track the disturbance and aim to provide a clear update as soon as we are sure we can make an informed decision based on prevailing conditions.