Watch for Bay Low Pressure continues as Models struggle with inference

The wait & watch for Bay Low Pressure Area continues as models struggle to provide consistent inference under competing developments along the Equator.  The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation that is currently lying off Sri Lanka Coast has intensified and now extends up to 3.1 kms above sea level.  IMD expects a Low Pressure Area to form in the same region by today and subsequently expect it to intensify into a depression within the next 48 hours.

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While the consistency on the Low Pressure Area genesis continues among all the models the track & intensities continue to diverge thanks to the influence a broad circulation in Southern Hemisphere is having over its cousin, Bay Low Pressure, north of the Equator.  Both the disturbances continue to share an umbilical cord which is not only robbing of convection & energy to the Bay Low Pressure on a temporary basis it is also influencing model outputs.  This influence is expected to fade away over the course of the next 24 hours or so providing the Bay Low Pressure with some much needed space for development.  Once the twins start their journey and destinations on their own the dynamics will start to change providing models with better conditions to provide consistent inference.  Till then the Watch for Bay Low Pressure continues.

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In the meanwhile thanks to the Bay Low Pressure making slow progress we are likely to see clearer skies and lesser moisture in the atmosphere providing for hotter day time conditions across most places of Tamil Nadu. One or two Places is expected to record in excess of 40 degrees today as well.  North Interior Tamil Nadu is likely to bear the brunt of the oppressive conditions as places like Vellore, Tiruttani & Tiruvallur could see day time max of about 41 degrees or above.

Chennai is likely to see a hot day with temperatures expected to stay around 36 degrees in the city and the suburbs to see a degree or two hotter conditions.

South Tamil Nadu and interior parts of Western Tamil Nadu around Salem / Dharmapuri could see isolated rains under the influence of the Line of Wind Discontinuity that continues to exist over Peninsular India