Butterflies flying in the stomach is a feeling most of us would have got many a times in our life, awaiting the first board exam results, as a youngster while opening your first appointment letter, as a father waiting eagerly for the birth of your first child and the list will go on. Similarly for many weather bloggers the transition season always sets butterflies in the stomach, would a cyclone form in Bay or not, will the monsoon, Southwest Monsoon or Northeast Monsoon as the case may be, set on time or not etc.
With MJO in the Indian Ocean now it is an exciting couple of weeks ahead for weather bloggers tracking the transition season. The thunderstorms are expected to increase in intensity on the back of support from North moving ITCZ & the presence of MJO in the region. This is likely to enhance the rainfall activity this week over most parts of Interior Peninsular India & west coast triggered by wind induced instabilities. Additionally the persistence of a an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over the Equator is likely to strengthen the cross equatorial westerlies though it remains to be see if indeed this UAC will descend into an organized disturbance.
Nevertheless weather models indicate a strong possibility for a disturbance to evolve in Arabian Sea this week aided by the presence of MJO in the reason, this development will ensure the seasonal change of winds is complete and also strengthen the Westerly winds over Arabian Sea. In the meanwhile thunderstorms are expected to roar over Peninsular India with bulk of activity happening along the Western Ghats & the west coast.
Many places in Kerala could see near daily rains from thunderstorms this week as things all in place for the onset of Monsoon over Kerala in less than 3 weeks from now. As far as rains for the day goes parts of South TN along the Ghats will continue to see moderate thunderstorm activity continue while few places in West TN may receive moderate spell of rains towards the evening. As has been the case for the past couple of days places along the coast may receive isolated light showers during the morning hours brought by weak Easterlies.