Fielding restrictions have been existing in limited overs cricket through some form or the other for nearly 50 years. A new wave of attacking batsmanship from cricketers like Ian Botham and Mark Greatbatch during the 1992 Cricket World Cup brought about by the 2 fielders outside the 30 yard circle restriction for the first 15 overs during ODIs could be the first memory of Powerplay for many old time cricket observers though the actual phrase of “Powerplay” came into use much later during the year 2005 when ICC formally introduced Powerplay. As a weather blog from Chennai it is essential to point out here even though the World Series during 70s did show some attacking batting it was for Kris Srikkanth who made attacking batting at the start of the innings a regular habit not just in limited overs cricket but also test matches like this innings at SCG in 1986 when he made 116 of 117 balls his 1st century in test cricket.
One may wonder why such a long opening paragraph about cricket in a weather blog. Many a times a thinking captain uses powerplay not just to up the strike rates but also break the shackles of a some tight bowling by the opposition. Similarly Monsoon also needs phases of powerplay in the form of favorable conditions to up the ante at times or to turn the tables on unfavorable phase of play. One such instance is evolving in front of us for Monsoon 2023. After what was an extremely lackluster start to the season in the form delayed onset over Kerala and subsequent movement in fits the last couple of days with major help from the well marked low Monsoon has picked up pace covering most parts of the country except small pockets of Haryana, Rajasthan and some parts of Rajasthan. It is only a matter of time before these areas also come under monsoon conditions effectively completing the onset possibly a week ahead of schedule despite starting a week behind schedule.
One of the biggest influences in this powerplay conditions for Monsoon dynamics is the development of a fresh high amplitude pulse of MJO over the western parts of Indian Ocean. Over the next couple of weeks this is likely to provide conducive conditions for Monsoon to cover up a large part of the deficit that has accumulated due to the slow start. While its too early to say, with nearly 3/4th of the season still to come, whether would this phase of 2 / 3 weeks could be the most active of the season. There is a fair possibility this phase could be one of the highlights of the monsoon season if not the best spell as MJO slowly winds its way West to East across the Indian Ocean and subsequently over the eastern parts of Maritime continent where it will continue to support monsoon dynamics. Pulses coming into Bay from Far East under the influence of MJO in Maritime continent will keep the conditions conducive for Bay Branch to lead the monsoon dynamics.
Often in the past when Monsoon Low moves above North Tamil Nadu latitude it brings about a spell of thunderstorm which last for a day or two depending on the movement of the monsoon low. Many a times weather models tend not to pick up this spell of rains though as is the case during Monsoon conditions the caveat of 50:50 for rains over the leeward areas will apply in this case also. The next couple of days provide that small window of opportunity for parts of Tamil Nadu particularly over North TN to catch up some rains from thunderstorms. With westerlies fairly strong the rain bands will get pushed from West to East quickly so unlike break in monsoon period thunderstorms which provide for longer spell of rains the spell of rains will be of shorter duration but heavier intensity.
Towards the weekend as the current low moves further west and starts to reach the end of its life cycle weather models indicate a fresh circulation to evolve at mid tropospheric levels over South Bay. As this circulation develops just like the earlier spell of rains that happened over Chennai and rest of North TN around last Sunday / Monday it provides a window of opportunity for parts of Tamil Nadu to catch up a spell or two of rains before Monsoon takes full advantage of the powerplay. While its difficult to put quantum on rains through thunderstorms during monsoon time it may not come as a surprise if atleast two out of the 4 districts in KTCC reach a seasonal accumulation of 250 mm before we reach the end of July 1st week.