The Bay Depression that has been playing spoilsport delaying the onset of Northeast Monsoon has now started its journey back towards the Indian coast. Models are indicating the Bay Depression to become a Tropical Cyclone over the next 24 hours or so as it makes this movement towards Indian Coast. After taking about 4 days for its Northeast Journey towards the Myanmar coast the Bay Depression has now started to move in a Westward direction back towards the Indian Coast which is expected to consume a further 3 / 4 days as it possibly intensifies into a Tropical Cyclone and then starts to loose intensity slowly.
Almost all of the models are now consistent in the role of the ridge over the Indian Sub Continent taking up the steering after the ridge over West Pacific played its role of preventing further Northeast Movement and subsequent landfall over Myanmar. The West Pacific ridge is expected to move slightly to the East paving way for the system to move in a W/SW direction. As things stand there is a fair chance of the system possibly reaching the Indian coast between Machilipatnam & Gopalpur
In the meanwhile Dry Weather will continue over Tamil Nadu with cool nights and early mornings setting the tone till this Bay depression completes its life cycle. Models are picking up another disturbance to the East of Andaman around 29th / 30th October which depending on the genesis could hold key for the onset of Northeast Monsoon for Tamil Nadu.