Southwest Monsoon 2017 suffers Early Season Stall

Southwest Monsoon 2017 on the back of Cyclone Mora made earlier than  normal onset over Kerala on May 30th.  Since then the eager expectation for most weather observers has been the northward movement of the monsoon surge.  While rest of the country eagerly awaits the arrival of Southwest Monsoon the monsoon has pretty much parked itself at Kochi latitude the place it reached on the day of onset over Kerala.

The precipitation pattern for the last three days confirms the problems Southwest Monsoon 2017 has been going through with most of the precipitation staying away from the coast with rains for even places in Kerala tapering off compared to the onset days during the last week of May.  Similarly the rains in interior parts of Peninsular India indicates the pre monsoon period type of weather prevailing rather than active monsoon conditions.  In part the Cyclonic Circulation in West Arabian Sea could also be blamed for disturbing the progress

All is not lost yet since the season is almost four months long and early season pangs dont necessarily reflect on the overall performance of the monsoon.  But as things stand it appears until Friday or so its difficult to see monsoon climbing up the latitude drastically due to prevailing wind patterns. Southwest Monsoon could see its first surge of the season happen when the Bay disturbance evolves out of Central Bay as estimated by most models around 9th / 10th of June.  As this disturbance deepens it is expected to streamline the wind pattern to drag the monsoon to further parts of Peninsular India though until the end of the week we could possibly see Monsoon stay around 15 – 17N

The trend of above normal temperatures for Tamil Nadu is expected to continue today as well with most parts of the state expected to see temperatures stay a degree or two above normal.  While interior places of the state could be in line for some thunderstorms there will be  a bit of dryness to the overall atmosphere.  Chennai’s rainfall prospects could improve once the wind pattern falls in place overall.

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