Severe Cyclone Nivar is getting ready to flex its muscles as it targets touch down over North Coastal Tamil Nadu later tonight. Any Cyclone tracking is an extremely strenuous job with the constant real time observations needed to correlate against model estimates. Unlike rainfall events this correlation of real time observations with model estimates becomes critical during cyclones due to the potential for damages.
When their is divergence among models on where a cyclone heads for landfall things become even worse. In this case with landfall estimates between models varying by more than 100 kms for an event that is less than 24 hours away it reminds of the phrase squeaky bum time made famous by Sir. Alex Fergusson the most famous manager of Manchester United.
It is indeed Squeaky Bum Time for weather bloggers as we squirm in our seats hoping we don’t interpret the wrong way.