With Southwest Monsoon continuing to be very active int he core monsoon zone rains in Tamil Nadu have taken a back seat with pretty much dry weather dominating the state. While day before saw no major rains in any place according to the Daily Rainfall report issued by IMD Chennai, yesterday saw only Valparai PTO, Chinna Kallar, Pollachi & Kuzhithurai feature in the report of which Valparai recorded 3 cms while all the others recorded only 1 cm indicating how dry the weather pattern is for the state.
The indications are that the West Coast & Central India are likely to see fairly active monsoon conditions over the next 10 days or so. It also seem to indicate the Southern part of the West Coast is likely to see slightly more subdued conditions compared to the Northern parts. This does not augur well for Kerala which is already seeing a very subdued phase of monsoon since middle of July. It is scary to think only 6 days have seen the Daily Mean Rainfall for Kerala exceeding the climatological average for this time of the year with only one day exceeding the average over the last 20 days or so.
Going by model outlooks it appears Rains In Tamil Nadu will stay away for most of the first fortnight of August. Tamil Nadu looks mostly dry except for the places along the Western Ghats & extreme South Tamil Nadu along the Kanyakumari district. With an active monsoon over the core zone the chances for better rainfall prospects for Tamil Nadu looks remote. Over the next week or so a couple of tropical disturbances is expected to travel along the monsoon trough making it tough for the moisture to move into Peninsular India. After 10th of August there is a possibility of a Tropical Disturbance in Head Bay which could possibly play a role in pushing the monsoon trough towards the foothills of Himalayas providing much needed impetus for the rains in Tamil Nadu. Till then it is going to be a long dry spell in all probability.