The low pressure off the West Coast of India has now intensified into a Depression and is expected to further intensify in the days to come.
Lying East Southeast of Mumbai this disturbance is expected to track NNW and move towards the Persian Gulf Region. Already showing very good convection the system is expected to intensify into potentially the first Cyclone in Arabian Sea of 2015. There is a strong possibility this could the first named cyclone of the North Indian Ocean this year.
While there is some divergence on the model outputs as far as the track and intensity goes. The disturbance is currently in a very good location as far as ground support is concerned in the form of very Warm seas and potentially low Vertical Wind Shear Zone.
The HPA over Indian Sub Continent could continue to steer this disturbance in a NNW direction before the HPA over Middle East region could take over the steering and send the disturbance in a more westerly direction.
This period could also see poor steering environment if the HPA over Middle East does not handshake the disturbance on time. Coinciding this period would be the cooler waters and potentially dry air incursion from the west which could destabilize the system and weaken it before Landfall. As things stand there is a firm possibility the system may not make a landfall at all. We will keep you updated of this development.
In the meanwhile as the depression tracks along the West coast it has triggered some heavy rains over Coastal Karnataka & Konkan regions bringing much relief to those eagerly awaiting the onset of Monsoon.