Northeast Monsoon Express to arrive behind schedule

With SWM retreating fast all eyes are on the Northeast Monsoon express that is the lifeline of Tamil Nadu.  While the scheduled arrival (Onset according to IMD) is October 20th (+/- 7 days) this year Northeast Monsoon could arrive behind schedule thanks to unfavorable conditions that have been continuing over Bay and further to the West over the South China Sea.

We give a brief comparison of how things evolved over the last couple of years with regard to the onset of Northeast Monsoon and how things are looking like this year to give a brief prelude of what could be expected

As one can observe from the video by this time both 2015 and 2014 had seen the onset of Easterlies by 16th October though between 2014 and 2015 there was a huge difference on how strong the Easterlies were.  Just like 2016 a West Pacific Typhoon played spoilsport in NEM Onset stalling the wind transition and delayed the onset until October 29th.  The monsoon surge gives a key indication on the possible onset with the rains reaching once the monsoon wind picks up pace.

With most parts of Peninsular India still seeing Westerly winds and expected to see Westerly continue for the next 7 to  10 days as things stand we are likely to see a delayed onset.  Though numerical models indicate the possibly setting of Easterlies around 25th / 26th October whether would it accompany with a tropical activity to trigger the onset is a billion dollar question.  Till then it is going to be fingers crossed for all of us.