Northeast Monsoon 2016 Outlook – What is in store for us?

With Northeast Monsoon 2016 seeing a fairly weak onset a lot of people have been messaging us asking for what is in store this year.  With Chennai still not seeing a very active monsoon yet there are a lot of worried minds.  Adding to the mix is unnecessary rumors that spread on WhatsApp and Social Media about a repeat of the floods of last year etc which creates immediate panic among a majority of the Chennai residents.

In this context we have tried to give our inference on what can be expected during Northeast Monsoon 2016.  We have also attempted to find what could be the most active phase of Northeast Monsoon 2016 so that it gives some clarity on what to expect when rather than get perturbed by those rumors in Social Media.

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In the immediate context with the Bay Depression now well North of us expect dry weather to be the dominating pattern for the next few days.  With further movement expected in the Northward direction over the next couple of days expect the rainfall areas to be well North of Tamil Nadu as Odisha, Coastal Andhra, West Bengal & Bangladesh possibly get some good rains out of the Depression Bay which is expected to further intensify into a Deep Depression.

For the slightly longer outlook we have put together a VLOG through which we have tried to address how Northeast Monsoon 2016 will pan out. Ideally we would like to keep our inferences simple and self drawn forecast maps to prevent information overload. In the current context we have used OLR & Tropical Wave Forecasts while trying to keep the overall easy inference in mind.

As with all seasonal outlooks it has been made based on currently available trends which could possibly change as things evolve with weather & environmental factors.