After a fairly widespread day of rains on Monday though yesterday saw some good thunderstorms develop over Salem, Villupuram & Cuddalore districts overall a much more quieter day was seen over Tamil Nadu. After Monday’s good rains over North Tamil Nadu the overall rainfall for the Monsoon season now is just 0.5 mm short of the normal average for this period. This is despite the two important districts of Nilgiris & Kanyakumari showing negative trends so far. Yesterday Salem & Villupuram districts enjoyed the best spells while Pondicherry was unlucky to miss the thunderstorms as they crossed coast with Cuddalore getting 15 mm rains while Pondicherry did not get even trace.
Southwest Monsoon continues to stutter with almost 10 days now past since any movement over the West Coast. The Monsoon continues to stall over Maharashtra / Gujarat border since 12th and the next couple of day is unlikely to bring any movement either in the West Coast. As things stand we are possibly going to see Monsoon make some progress in East India with possibly East Uttar Pradesh seeing Monsoon onset in a day or two
Models are indicating some momentum picking up for Southwest Monsoon over Kerala & Karnataka in the next couple of days which could possibly influence the rainfall pattern over Tamil Nadu along with parts of Rayalaseema. Numerical Models indicate another possibly quiet day on the rain front over large parts of Tamil Nadu with possibly a more stable atmosphere expected to prevail due to the wind patterns which are slowly getting streamlined for the monsoon to make a modest revival over West Coast.
Isolated thunderstorms could happen over parts of Coastal Tamil Nadu but overall it could be a more subdued day with possibly the rains expected to see a tapering trend as the week progresses. Models indicate a weak sea breeze day over the areas around Chennai which could possibly make it a potentially clear day around Chennai. Some lower level convergence could happen around South Coastal TN which could bring rains around Sivaganga / Pudukottai areas.
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