While Bay churns at its own pace Weather in Tamil Nadu is slowly getting into clear mode. With the remnants of Cyclone Nada completely moving out of the influence zone the rains have started to slow down in the state. While 4th saw moderate rains in parts of North Coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining parts of South Andhra Pradesh yesterday saw the rains further slow down with only some isolated rains in North Tamil Nadu indicating the Dry weather in Tamil Nadu that is likely to prevail over the next day or two.
The Well Marked Low has been pretty much making slow progress while it tries to consolidate itself. The system continues to be in the vicinity of the Sumatra / Andaman Islands region. While the area has been seeing a lot of convection developing the system has been unable to consolidate itself into a firm organization. Over the next day or two as the system moves Northwest into the open seas of Bay of Bengal we could expect some bit of organization developing.
When the system moves into the open waters of Bay of Bengal which are ripe in terms of aiding for the development of a tropical cyclone in the later days of the week. Models continue to show a landfall along the Coastal Andhra Pradesh as things stand. But there could be some change in the landfall pattern as models make better judgement of the location of the disturbance as it intensifies. The low location has been showing a more Westward trend compared to what the models are estimating over the last 24 hours or so. Once the model picks the right location we could possibly expect some changes in the track and landfall pattern.