Luban & Titli Cyclones to impact South India Together??

In all the social media cacophony about still to form Luban & Titli Cyclones the Easterly winds induced Rains made its presence felt over many parts of Coastal Tamil  Nadu as the stretch between Thoothukudi & Puducherry recorded good rains through out all along the coast.  Pamban in Ramanthapuram district recorded more than 7 cms as of 5:30 AM today morning.

Places like Puducherry, Cuddalore which saw rains pick up in the morning hours are likely to see it continue for the next few hours as a strong convection is pushing in from the sea.  While Satyabhama University in Kelambakkam recorded 21 mm as of 5:30 AM most of Chennai had to satisfy with light rains as Nungambakkam recorded 8 mm the Airport observatory did not even record 1 mm.

A lot of talk happening around in Social Media about possibly two cyclones forming together, Luban & Titili bringing heavy rains in the process.  It is indeed a sad development to see so called Weather Bloggers just spreading panic based on ever changing model outputs without considering the dynamics of weather.  When the atmosphere gets ready to change from Westerly to Easterly winds or vice versa there is always a case of inconsistent model outputs. The classic dumbell shape wind pattern with circulations on either side of Peninsular India is a indicator of NEM onset.

Due to the changing dynamics weather models at times models tend to overestimate / underestimate weather dynamics.  The double cyclone was possibly one such scenario as reality check will confirm why its a non starter.  Unlike Pacific or Atlantic Oceans which are expanses of water and a more open basin, the North Indian Ocean Basin (Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal) is relatively smaller basin bound by land areas on either side restricting the probability of multiple disturbances simultaneously.  Only once in the last 100 years or so we have had simultaneous cyclones in North Indian Ocean Basin during the year 1977.

On the Rain front today also we are likely to see widespread rains in most parts of Tamil Nadu with few places in coastal areas particularly between Marakkanam and delta districts likely to see heavy rains continue well into the morning.  As far as Chennai goes we are possibly just North of the best conditions nevertheless we will get moderate spells with southern suburbs enjoying better conditions.