Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal Unlikely to become a strong system

The Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal near Andaman Islands continues to persist and is expected to become a Well Marked Low within the next 24 hours according to IMD.  The Low Pressure has formed under the influence of an Equatorial Rossby Wave which has also spun another tropical disturbance to the South of Equator as well.

During the month of February tropical disturbances are very rare thanks to unfavorable environmental conditions in both Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea.  In all only about 6 Tropical Systems have gone on to become a Depression or stronger over the last 130 years or so since IMD started maintaining records.  The last depression during the month of May formed in 2011 which did not have a landfall.  The year 1944 saw a tropical cyclone evolve in the month of May and cross the North Tamil Nadu coast just south of Chennai.

Output

As mentioned above the current Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal is an influence of the Rossby wave which has also spun another system in the Southern Hemisphere.  As things stand the Southern Hemisphere system is expected to be the one that is expected to be the stronger one thanks to the support of ITCZ which is still found around 10S as it makes its way slowly to the Northern Hemisphere following the sun.

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As things stand the current Low Pressure in Bay is unlikely to join the band of about 6 systems that became depression or stronger during the month of February.  Though it is expected to become a Well Marked Low over the next 24 hours it is likely to retain a similar intensity over the next couple of days and then gradually fade away as it comes closer to the Indian Sub Continent bringing in rains to Sri Lanka & South Tamil Nadu as the weekend approaches.