Low Pressure in Bay, 6:00 AM Update: Rains to start in South TN by evening

The season’s first Low Pressure has formed off Sri Lanka Coast and is expected to intensify into a Well Marked Low over the next 24 hours or so and subsequently into a Depression.   While the Low Pressure in Bay is fairly close to the coast of Sri Lanka (about 200 kms to the E/SE of Sri Lankan coast) possible land interaction could play a role in intensification & track.   Keeping in view of the current context of #TamilNaduElections we intend to provide 3 updates today & tomorrow instead of our daily post.

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Models are fairly in sync about the NW movement of the Low Pressure in Bay over Sri Lanka on its way towards the South Tamil Nadu coast.  The divergence in the model expectations start from the point where the possible Depression reaches the Tamil Nadu and subsequent set of events.

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As things stand we could expect the following broad time lines.

  1. South Tamil Nadu to start receiving rains in the next 12 hours with increasing intensity as the night sets in.  By late night we could see heavy spells of rains at many places in the region impacting possible voting tomorrow
  2. Coastal Tamil Nadu to the south of Pondicherry to see rains starting from tomorrow early morning with on and off moderate to heavy spells tomorrow.  Second half of the day voting is likely to be affected
  3. North Coastal Tamil Nadu to see moderate on and off rains from tomorrow afternoon with some marginal impact to voting at best rather cloudy conditions could keep the temperature under check for most parts of the day
  4. Interior Tamil Nadu should possibly see pleasant weather and isolated places receiving spells of rains.  No major impact expected on the voting front.

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As things evolve today we will provide another update in the Afternoon / Evening based on current conditions and evolution of the Low Pressure in Bay