July provides some Hope for Monsoon - (COMK SWM Series 4)

The 4th post of the COMK Southwest Monsoon 2019 medium to long term inference. The earlier posts in this series are given below

It is an understatement to say Southwest Monsoon has been weak so far over the Peninsular India. While Konkan coast manage to recover the entire deficit quantum with a couple of days rains over the weekend it is a different question if these burst of intense rains are a boon or bane when one considers the fact BMC has let out nearly 14000 Million Litres of water into the sea to reduce water logging in the metropolis.

A look at the seasonal rainfall anomaly map shows how bad things are with 3 / 4th of the country seeing red with an overall deficit of –30%. In the southern states only North Interior Karnataka is in the green seeing 4% more rains than average while Kerala is performing the worst with a deficit of –48% over long term average. Southwest Monsoon badly needs a trigger to prevent a large scale crisis developing soon.

Through today’s post we try to provide some answers to this Monsoon Puzzle. So far we have not had an opportunity to provide any sort of comfort / positive vibe through these Monsoon series posts. For the first time though there could be some positive development for Peninsular India in the coming days. Influence of two important waves are seen, though at a slightly weaker level, during the month of July to give some hope for Monsoon to pick up momentum over Peninsular India in the coming few days.

The arrival of Equatorial Rossby Wave next week is likely to trigger active monsoon conditions over Peninsular India. This phase of active monsoon conditions may stretch between 7 to 10 days after which a short period of subdued activity may be seen. Second half of July may see the arrival of MJO that could give a boost to Southwest Monsoon. Models are indicating a weak amplitude MJO to move into Indian Ocean though closer to the event we may have better clarity on the actual impact of MJO.

All in all on the positive side July may not go the June way as far as Peninsular India goes though it could be difficult to see the overall deficit being clawed back during this month. Further beyond things look hazy but we will cross the bridge when it comes.