Isolated Rains likely in South Tamil Nadu, Status Quo elsewhere

As most of Tamil Nadu eagerly awaits some positive news on the onset of Northeast Monsoon dry weather continues to dominate most of Peninsular India.  As mentioned in our post yesterday IMD is expecting a Low Pressure Area to form in Central Bay of Bengal from the Current Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation that is prevailing off the Arakan Coast.  Models indicate no immediate influence from this disturbance on the weather pattern over Tamil Nadu.  Weather_Update_1

In the meanwhile thanks to a pseudo Line of Wind Discontinuity situation evolving over South Tamil Nadu there is a possibility of some rains happening over parts of South Kerala & South Tamil Nadu.  Additionally a trough is seen extending from this region to the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation in the Central bay which aids the possible rainfall opportunities. Apart from this region most other parts of Peninsular India are likely to remain dry as no immediate respite is seen in the dry weather giving up soon.  Weather_Update

Keeping in mind the overall suppressed conditions the rains are not likely to be very heavy and widespread. Isolated moderate spells of rains may be on the cards in one or two places of South Kerala.  One or two places around Madurai, Ramanathapuram, Thootukudi could get a spell or two of rains under influence of of this wind induced instability.  With overall moisture remaining very low it could be light to medium short duration showers possibly.

Rest of Tamil Nadu will remain dry with warm day time conditions and thanks to clear skies lower temperatures during the night.