We have often remarked weather blogging is a hobby that tests one’s patience many a time. Yesterday will get into books as one more day where weather bloggers were wondering what is happening as the Well Marked Low in South Bay churned & intensified at its own pace to become a depression by evening 5:30 PM. In the meanwhile the spells of light to moderate rains in Chennai started pitching the weather bloggers into two sides, one who started wondering if it will indeed rain in Chennai & the other who was requesting patience for the system to get into action. As the day wound down during the late night hours the rains started to show up its face with relentless spells of rains of varying intensity continuing pretty much non stop for a few hours now.
With more rains to expected in the upcoming hours as the depression jogs slowly in a NW direction towards North TN / South AP coast for a possible landfall closer to Chennai later in the evening it may not be wrong to assume that the first group of bloggers wondering if the rains will indeed happen may empty like the party office that has lost an election as the results start pouring in. At around midnight the depression was lying about 300 kms Southeast of Chennai and was moving at around 27 km/h speed according to IMD. As it comes closer to the coast we might see it slow down slightly though some models are picking up a possible stall scenario and pushing landfall further into the night.
As the Depression moves NW we will start seeing the convection get recycled more and more towards the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh. Gradually when the depression is closer to coast the convection will start pushing into interior areas of Peninsular India as well. The satellite image indicates the depression has had a bout of intensification around midnight which is also showing up in the enhanced vorticity as well. It remains to be seen if IMD pushes up this system to a Deep Depression / marginal cyclone.
Meanwhile next 12 hours or so from the time of this post, 5:00 AM on 11th Nov. 2021, will be critical for Chennai as heavy rains are likely to continue with varying intensity & at times very heavy spells may be seen in places along the coast line & up to 5 kms from the coast line. So Stay Safe Makkale. Don’t venture out unless it is absolutely essential.