anticlimax : the usually sudden transition in discourse from a significant idea to a trivial or ludicrous idea (Merriam Webster Dictionary)
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Madi, Cyclonic Storm Kyant, Cyclonic Storm Nilam etc will be some of the names that immediately spring in the minds of Chennai Weather bloggers when ever the phrase Anticlimax is used. Possibly the current Bay Depression will soon storm the charts and end up as the number one reference to Anticlimax & become a benchmark of reference to dsiturbances that flattered to decieve.
Late last night the Deep Depression weakened into a Depression and lay about 285 kms East of Cuddalore as it started its SW drift towards Delta coast of Tamil Nadu. The weakening trend is expected to be accelerated as it moves SW under the influence of Dry Air that has taken a stranglehold on the disturbance. While many models are leaning towards dissipation in the sea off the coast of TN some models like ECMWF expect a weak low level circulation to drift inland around 10N latitude.
This variance between models on whether the disturbance would drift inland as a circulation or dissipate over the sea has triggered divergent rainfall pattern as well. Though the interaction between the incoming Westerly Trough has robbed convection to some extent from the Depression, there does exists a fair bit of convection in the Norhteast Quadrant of the disturbance which will move towards Coastal TN as the low level circulation drifts SW.
This could mean while the rains are unlikely to be heavy / very heavy as weather models estimated a couple of days back some places in Coastal TN may get heavy rains due to wind convergence, particularly a small stretch around 50 kms on either side of Pondicherry remaining vulnerable for this spell. Moderate to heavy spell of rains may happen over the coastal areas of TN between Pondy & Delta districts with the rain bands shifting to interior TN as the convection gets pushed SW further.
Chennai may see light to moderate rains during the evening / late night hours with places south fo Chennai likely to see slightly heavy spell of rains at times during the night. But due to rapidly changing dynamics the actual rainfall in real time may be lesser than estimated rainfall