While the Bay gets ready for Cyclone Weather in Tamil Nadu is expected to remain dry over large parts of the state except for some isolated pockets in South Tamil Nadu. Yesterday some rains were recorded in isolated places of Theni, Cuddalore, Pudukkottai, Sivaganga districts. Compared to the previous days the rains were not as widespread though. Going by model indications this spell of dry weather in Tamil Nadu particularly around the Northern parts of the state could stretch for the next week or so as the Bay disturbance takes its own sweet time to decide its next course of action.
As models estimated the Deep Depression in Bay of Bengal has made a NE movement for the last 48 hours or so reaching close to the Myanmar coast. Within the next 12 to 24 hours the system could become Cyclone Kyant and possibly start its recurve back towards the Indian Coast. This process of recurve normally is a slow one just like how a multi axle trailer takes a lot of time to take a U turn. Once the recurve happens the window of movement becomes wide enough to create complex possibilities of possible track due to the interplay between the two High Pressure Zone on the either sides of the disturbance as explained in our yesterday’s post.
Unfortunately though all this comes at the cost of Northeast Monsoon Onset for Tamil Nadu. The longer this system lingers around in the Bay the further our onset could get pushed back. The next 3 to 5 days will possibly be occupied by this Cyclone in the making with a Dry Diwali on the cards for most parts of Tamil Nadu.