It’s not uncommon for Northeast Monsoon to go through dry spells even though the overall Monsoon is effectively for a period of only 60 days during even optimistic years. It is also very true the emotions of not only Weather Bloggers but also most people of Tamil Nadu is closely tied to how NEM behaves so we tend to see emotions ebb & flow as the season goes.
The current mini dry spell is one such event with a lot of people wondering if things are taking a bad turn. Add to the fact two circulations on both the seas either side of the Indian Sub Continent prevailing now brings the bad memories of the failed NEM 2018 as human mind tends to associate recent patterns more often.
The Bay Low is certainly fading away in influence as it currently lies over Odisha and adjoining parts of West Bengal. On the other side the disturbance over Arabian Sea, currently lying just off the Konkan Coast, has already intensified into Deep Depression and is on its way to becoming Cyclone Kyarr before today afternoon. It’s expected to move in a NNE path for the next 12 hours or so before heading in a more Westward direction as it picks up intensity and becomes a very severe cyclone. During this 12 – 18 hours as it lies close to the Maharashtra coast strong gusts is likely along the coast with rains at most places and heavy rains at many places.
But for us the interest area is down South in the Equatorial Bay where an interplay of two tropical waves will set in a sequence of events that’s likely to bring back the mojo into Northeast Monsoon. While wind charts are already indicating a possible ER influence the MJO is expected to influence the Eastern Indian Ocean anytime now. This is likely to trigger a pulse over South Bay / Equatorial Bay. While models are not developing any major event from this sequence of events it may be prudent to keep a watch on this development for a possible cyclone to come out from South / Central Bay sometime next week.
Rains are likely to slowly make its return over Tamil Nadu by late Saturday in a compromise between celebrating Diwali and the need for rains this year Diwali might see on & off spells of rains providing enough time for festivities to happen.