With the first fortnight of February behind us it is that time of the year when normally we do not look at rainfall opportunities over the East coast of Peninsular India. Second half of February is typically the time when weather watchers observe for slight increases in temperatures as parts of Peninsular India starts to get ready for summer conditions. Additionally one also carefully starts to look if the wind charts also show any signs of the another season also making its entry. The season of Veppasalanam Rains or convective thunderstorms that show up along the Western Ghats initially & then gradually push into other interior parts of Penisular India.
Weather charts though show a disturbance in Bay of Bengal in the form of a trough of Easterlies which could have become a possible Low Pressure Area if not for the extremely active conditions South Indian Ocean is seeing on account of favorable ITCZ position & also additional support from the presence of MJO as well in the region. So it appears this disturbance will possibly complete its life cycle as a possible Trough of Easterlies along with associated upper air cyclonic circulation for the next day or two before the arrival of an incoming Westerly Trough will take this circulation further away in a NE direction.
It is important to note the spell of rains which models picked up during the weekend was based on this Trough of Easterlies along with associated UAC moving in a NW direction towards the TN coast making conditions conducive for rains. It is pertinent to note the interaction between Easterlies & Westerly trough is always a case of fine balance and difficult to judge.
Meanwhile while it is still early days for the Veppasalanam Rains to start but signs are showing up in the form of some weak wind discontinuity like conditions showing up along the Western Ghats which is likely to trigger some thunderstorms over a few places in Kerala & one or two places in Tamil Nadu too. Weather charts indicate this development is not yet permanent but just a temporary development due to the presence of the Trough of Easterlies in Bay. But one should keep in mind seasonal model outlooks indeed show Summer Thunderstorm months could be active for Interior parts of Peninsular India so it is going to be an good couple of months ahead for places that typically look forward to Veppa Salanam Rains as their best period of rains