As the Bay Depression churns away on its way towards the coast of Tamil Nadu we are likely to see the possibility of a cyclone in the making over the next 24 hours or so. Showing some signs of intensification over the last 24 hours or so after climbing up the latitude the depression now lies about 500 kms to the East of the Sri Lankan coast and about 800 kms to the South East of Pondicherry. While it has taken a West / Northewest movement so far slowly as the day progresses we could start seeing a more pronounced Northwest Movement towards the coast of Tamil Nadu skirting the Sri Lankan coast slightly.
As things stand we are likely to see the current depression become a Deep Depression within the next 6 hours or so and subsequently a Cyclonic Storm in the next 18 hours or so. Crucially as the cyclone moves in a Northwest Direction being close to the Sri Lanka could rob a little bit of intensity from the system making it weaken before landfall. Though models as of now are consistent about the system not making any proper landfall over Sri Lanka there could be a marginal interaction which could possibly prevent the system making landfall as a cyclone.
Going by the current conditions the rains could start in coastal Tamil Nadu from 1st December with possibly the heaviest rains expected between late evening of 1st December till the morning of 2nd December before some of the rains shift to places in the interiors of Central & South TN. We will be putting up an evening post today based on how things evolve and the rainfall probabilities.