Cyclone in Bay of Bengal now a Strong Probability – Where would it go?

IMD has officially declared a watch over the Trough of Low present in the South West Bay.  Over the next 24 hours a LOPAR is expected to form West of Andaman Islands.  The location of the LOPAR area is vital for the possible path the cyclone would take and its eventual landfall.

It appears that as things stand the LOPAR area could form slightly East of what would have been an ideal location for Chennai to get the benefit of Cyclone & Rains.

Based on the cyclogenesis location the possible NW movement would take the system around Central AP.  But depending on intensity developed over the next few days the cyclone could be influenced by the developing HPA over Central India to either move in a NE direction towards Odisha or make a landfall over Central AP Coast.

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For the sake of rains we would prefer the system do not develop intensity.  In the meanwhile isolated showers would continue for Chennai with heavier spells during the night and early morning.