The naming of tropical cyclones has been in prevalence for many years over basins like Atlantic. It was brought in for better identification / communication about individual cyclones. The practice of naming Cyclones over North Indian Ocean started much later. Onil in the year 2004 was the first named cyclone over the North Indian Ocean. While cyclones names go in an alphabetical order over basins like Atlantic in the North Indian Ocean it is in an alphabetical order of the member nations. Onil the name contributed by Bangladesh became the first name for a tropical cyclone in North Indian Ocean. In the next 12 to 24 hours Cyclone Dana will be the latest name of cyclones over North Indian Ocean. Fengal a name contributed by Saudi Arabia will be the next to follow Cyclone Dana.
The deep depression currently lying to the NW of Andaman Islands has started to strengthen. It is likely to become Cyclonic Storm over the next 12 to 24 hours. Weather models are fairly consistent Cyclone Dana may intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by tomorrow. With a fairly clear NW movement it is likely to head towards North Odisha / South Bengal coast. Most models are in agreement about possible landfall between Chandbali and Digha. Except for GEM the landfall time is also in fairly tight agreement around noon of 25th October.
Many may wonder about the complete reduction of rains over the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu and South AP. The answer to this lies in the upper air circulation that currently lies off the coast of Karnataka. Over the past couple of days persisting over interior areas of Peninsular India it provided the right platform for widespread heavy rains over the region. With its movement further west we can expect a gradual reduction in rains over interior areas. The arrival of drier winds from North on account of Cyclone Dana will also make it less conducive for rains over North TN and adjoining interior areas of Peninsular India.
On the other hand parts of South TN and Kerala may see the return of heavy rains. Heavy rains on account of moisture dragged by the strengthening Cyclone Dana. Parts of Kanyakumari and Tirunelveli districts may see widespread heavy rains from today for the next 3 / 4 days. Coastal areas like Chennai will see drier weather with hazy skies on account of winds from North. There is nothing to worry about this spell of weak monsoon conditions and drier weather. Northeast Monsoon has just started and conservatively we have another 60 days to go.