Bay of Bengal Disturbance – Update

The disturbance over Bay of Bengal near Andamans is struggling to organize itself and is possibly in worse shape than may be today morning thanks to the land interaction.

2014WP99_4KMIRIMG_201411101200

IMD has confirmed what COMK has always been saying, this disturbance is unlikely to develop into a Cyclone.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

IMD expects this disturbance to become a Well Marked Low by tomorrow.

As things stand it is trying to move in a Westerly direction taking advantage of the decreasing shear running roughly East West from Andaman to Sri Lanka.

wm5sht

Though there is no concern on the Westerly movement if it tilts pronounced to the South it could have an impact on the rainfall over North TN, we think the rains are still on track for Chennai during middle of this week.

COMK will continue to update as things happen unbiased so you can take informed decisions.