Rains are the elixir of life and no wonder Thiruvalluvar talked about rains immediately after offering salutations to GOD. During Cyclonic Storm Fengal we saw how rains could also create disaster through the flooding of the Then Pennai basin. As the Bay LPA makes slow progress we are potentially going to see how rains may bring cheer as well. Parts of South TN has seen a very poor Northeast Monsoon so far. As we get to middle of December there is anxiety too.
கெடுப்பதூஉம் கெட்டார்க்குச் சார்வாய்மற் றாங்கே
பெய்யாமல் வாழ்வைக் கெடுக்க வல்லதும் மழை; மழையில்லாமல் வளம் கெட்டு நொந்தவர்க்கும் துணையாய் அவ்வாறே காக்க வல்லதும் மழையாகும்
எடுப்பதூஉம் எல்லாம் மழை.
The Bay LPA continues to remain over South Equatorial waters with a near stationary movement for the past 12 – 18 hours or so. This potentially could mean a delay in rains over coastal areas of TN compared to original estimates. We say with Cyclonic Storm Fengal as well how a small change in timelines change the impact zones completely. Nevertheless coastal areas between Pondicherry and Delta need to be careful of very heavy to extremely heavy rains between Wednesday and Friday.
Most models are now converging on the Bay LPA moving across North Sri Lanka and into Gulf of Mannar around 12th December. This could potentially trigger very heavy rains over South Coastal TN between Tondi and Thoothukudi as well. Similarly some of the Eastern slopes of Palani Hills may be vulnerable too as moisture gets dragged across. Almost 4 years back we had Cyclonic Storm Burevi head in a similar path. Interestingly while Cyclonic Storm Fengal exhibited something like Nivar it picked up the stalling tendency of Burevi.
This movement across GOM and subsequently into South TN may bring widespread heavy rains over South TN. There is a very good chance districts like Virudhunagar, Tenkasi and Thoothukudi which are seeing the highest deficits may completely cover up their deficit by the end of this week. Just like Burevi the heaviest rains may happen over Central parts of TN and South TN. But North TN including Chennai is likely to see widespread rains during the next couple of days. Few places in KTCC districts could see very heavy rains under the right wind convergence.
The next 10 days effectively is the sting NEM 2024 is going to show in its tail. Weather models are converging on another Low following the current Bay LPA. This is likely to bring another spell of widespread rains next week. Effectively there is a very high probability of every district in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry ending with a positive anomaly this NEM. The season currently stands at 15% above average and there is a good chance TN & PDC overall may end at around +20%