The last couple of days’ weather in Tamil Nadu has given an indication on how things are likely to pan out over this week. Clear skies, above average day time temperatures, uncomfortable nights is going to be the trend weather wise for most parts of Tamil Nadu. South Tamil Nadu which has seen a subdued rainfall season so far during this Southwest Monsoon season will want the Northeast Monsoon to come up without any delay.
Unfortunately as things stand the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon has been going behind schedule. The withdrawal is now confined to the extreme parts of Northwest India with only parts of Rajasthan, J&K, Punjab & Haryana.
According to the climatology at this time of the year Southwest Monsoon should have withdrawn from most parts of North India and parts of Central & West India as well. Going by model estimates it appears for the next few days Southwest Monsoon is unlikely to withdraw from any other part of India except NW India. Whether will this reflect in a delayed onset of Northeast Monsoon is too early to say. The normal onset date for Northeast Monsoon is 20th October we are still on course for a normal onset with +/- 5 days as things stand.
With the Southern parts of Peninsular India under clear skies the weather in Tamil Nadu continues to skew towards higher than average temperatures. In particular parts of South & Central Tamil Nadu in the interior regions have been seeing the maximum temperature well above normal. Going by model trends things are likely to be similar with above average temperature estimated by models for the next week or so over most parts of Peninsular India. At this time of the year the interior places start seeing thunderstorms due to changing wind patterns. This year with the delayed withdrawal of monsoon the interior thunderstorms are missing as well waiting for the winds to change.