As S. India moves to a dry spell, Kerala faces crunch time with Monsoon

After a few days of active monsoon conditions for the East coast things are set for a dry spell over the next few days as a Low Pressure over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining parts of Bay takes center stage of weather conditions over Indian Sub Continent.  Yesterday saw almost all of North Tamil Nadu under fair conditions as rains slowed down in the region.   Parts of South Tamil Nadu around Madurai, Pudukottai region got some isolated rains with places like Devakottai Agro recording about 42 mm rains.  Other places like Manalmelkudi, got moderate spells of rains during the same period.

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The Low Pressure over Bay of Bengal and adjoining parts of West Bengal is expected to bring heavy rains into parts of Odisha, West Bengal & Jharkhand and a few places in Northeast India.  In the meanwhile Southern Peninsular India is expected to go through a weak monsoon phase for the next few days as East India & Parts of UP / MP expected to benefit from the movement of the above tropical disturbance along the monsoon trough.

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The Monsoon Interseasonal Oscillation (MISO) developed by TropMet, Pune also confirms the unfavorable phase of monsoon conditions for Peninsular India.  Things could change though with a possible tropical disturbance in Central Bay as estimated by Numerical Models around the 9th / 10th of September.  This tropical disturbance is expected to bring back the rainy days for most parts of Peninsular India once again.

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In particular the West Coast of South India needs a huge impetus to bring Monsoon back as for the past month or so things have been band and it looks bleak in terms of outlook for the coming days.  Kerala that is going through possibly one of the worst monsoon in recent memory is staring at a potential disaster with possibly half of the state expected to end this year at deficit as things stand.  Districts like Wayanad need 5 times the normal rainfall to get to even 80% of long term average, the threshold Normal level according to IMD classification. Similarly Thrissur, Palakkad & Malappuram also are in critical stage and needs a change of fortune desperately. It could be worthwhile for the Kerala government to put in place a drought management system in place as it looks unlikely any of these districts will end in the normal category.

Chennai is likely to see fair weather conditions today with very little chance of any meaningful thunderstorm activity though we could possibly see a late evening sea breeze.  The atmospheric conditions at upper levels are fairly dry to take advantage of any unstable conditions prevalent.