As Northeast Monsoon winds down, LPA likely to the SE of Andaman Islands

Yesterday IMD announced the withdrawal of Northeast Monsoon 2016 from Peninsular India with the overall monsoon dynamics weakening and the ITCZ moving southward towards the Equator.  Since the start of 2017 only Vedaranyam and Papanasam have received any rainfall in excess of 10 mm in Tamil Nadu indicating the prevailing dryness in conditions.  Going by Numerical Model outputs it is unlikely the situation is expected to make any change for the better over the course of next few days. All in all it brings curtains to the worst Northeast Monsoon since 1876 for Tamil Nadu and the worst in more than a century for Chennai as well. 

In the meanwhile to the Southeast of Andaman Islands an LPA is likely to form within the next 24 hours or so and is likely to develop into a marginal tropical disturbance with IMD expecting it to become a Depression in the next 48 hours or so.  Most numerical models indicate this disturbance to stay around Andaman & Nicobar Islands over the next few days bringing in heavy rains to the Andaman Archipelago during the weekend. Parts of the islands could see heavy to very heavy rains on Saturday & Sunday as the tropical disturbance moves in a North / Northwest track trying to make the journey towards the Open bay waters.

As things stand models indicate not much prospects for this disturbance to influence Indian mainland though we will keep a watch on how things evolve over the next 24 – 48 hours looking out for the possibilities of rains reviving in Peninsular India.

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