With Cyclone Kyant out of the way we are inching closer to Northeast Monsoon onset. Over the last 24 hours or so Kyant has weakened into a depression and will become a possible low during the course of today. Once the system completely dissipates by tonight we could possibly see the first bit of Easterlies hit our coast. Numerical models are indicating Sunday possibly could see the first good day of rains across Tamil Nadu which is likely to be the day of Northeast Monsoon Onset for this year.
As the remnants of Kyant moves in closer to South Andhra Coast as a weak low pressure the remnants of this system is likely to bring in the rains to coastal Tamil Nadu & Andhra triggering the onset spell of Northeast Monsoon 2016.
Chennai could see on and off spells of rains start from late night today or tomorrow morning with moderate spells of rains to continue during the day. Diwali day could see delta region record moderate to heavy spells of rains at a few places but going by numerical model outputs tomorrow could see spells of dry weather interspersed during the day to allow the festivities to continue without much impact from the rains.
The heavier spells of rains are likely to happen on Sunday & Monday with Delta region, South TN and some parts of interior Tamil Nadu which have seen fairly poor rainfall so far this year getting some much needed rains during the onset phase of Northeast Monsoon.
Indications are we could see a bit of dry weather after this spell of rains after 2nd November as there is a possibility of a tropical disturbance evolving in Central bay which will hold key for further rainfall prospects.