The last few days the buzz among Weather enthusiasts has been Mumbai Rains over the weekend. While models have been showing some variance there has been a great bit of consistency over a very heavy rainy spell over the weekend for Mumbai & many parts of Maharashtra. With Southwest Monsoon going through a weak spell for the last few weeks this spell of rains have been highly anticipated by not only weather enthusiasts but even common people as Mumbai tries to build its water reserves until next year’s monsoon after what was a bad year last year.
A combination of factors that is expected to play over the next couple of days is likely to trigger a heavy spell of rains over the region with the rains peaking for Mumbai during the intervening period of Friday & Saturday. Thanks to the Low Pressure now lying over Telengana the wind patterns have created a confluence zone over Maharashtra & North Karnataka creating a highly unstable atmospheric conditions triggering intense thunderstorms due to the instability. With the circulation expected to be near stationary over the next 24 – 48 hours the wind pattern is conducive for the heavy duty rains over Maharasthra & Konkan coast region. The rains are expected to start from today and peak over possibly Saturday subsequently slowing down. There is model variance on how long the spell is likely to last but we feel from Sunday the rains should slow down to moderate spells.
Closer home there is likely to be some isolated rains over Coastal Tamil Nadu as convective activity could happen late in the evening with slightly more clearer skies and warmer temperatures are expected over Tamil Nadu. There is a fair chance of some evening thunderstorms developing to the West of Chennai which could move towards the city depending on favorable wind directions.