As Bay Low Pressure continues to develop, rains expected in S. Tamil Nadu

The Bay Low that has formed in Central Bay has intensified into a Well Marked Low in the same area.  Over the next couple of days it is expected to intensify into a Depression.  Some models are estimating the Bay Low to possibly go onto become the first post monsoon Tropical Cyclone of 2016.  With warm seas and the effect of West Pacific hindrance waning away there is a fair chance of this Bay Low developing into a Tropical Cyclone.

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As things stand since there exists a fluidity in the situation with regard to the potential for intensification the likely track and landfall scenarios are also expected to remain fluid.  Nevertheless the initial Northeast movement towards the Myanmar coast is expected over the next 48 to 72 hours or so.

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Crucially after Typhoon Haima completely dissipating the Ridge over West Pacific is expected to move further West towards Indo China Peninsula which is likely to create competing steering environment.  This competing steering environment will possibly decide the track as there is a possibility the system could get wedged between two ridges leading to poor steering and slow progress. Possibly models potentially envisage this developing scenario hence we can see models seeing this system extending its life span till possibly month end.  The earlier this one completes its journey the better the prospects for the Monsoon onset is an understatement though.

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In the meanwhile parts of South Tamil Nadu will continue to see rains with places like Dindigul, Tuticorin recording good rains yesterday.  Along with South TN we could see rains continue over South Kerala as well.  These rains are expected to come out of the wind convergence effect seen over the region leading to convective thunderstorms.

Chennai will see warm day time conditions and fairly pleasant night time conditions as cool Northerly winds make it a more wintery early morning feel rather than the typical monsoon condition expected to prevail at this time of the year.