The seasonal change towards Southwest Monsoon is unfolding as models indicate a possible Low Pressure in Bay over the course of the next few days. While there is a lot of inconsistency in the models in terms of the possible locations, tracks & landfalls as things stand we are likely to see a possible low in the Equatorial Indian Ocean possibly in the next 24 – 48 hours.
As a precursor to the changing wind patterns for Southwest Monsoon normally a Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal forms around the summer months triggering the change in wind directions from Easterlies to Westerlies. We are likely to witness this trigger to the change in the next couple of days as an area of disturbance is evolving around Equatorial Indian Ocean on its way to becoming a possible Low Pressure Area.
Models are still not showing enough consistency on the Location & Track along with the possible landfall options though most models seem to indicate a possible Tropical Cyclone could evolve out of the next set of disturbances in North Indian Ocean under the influence of extremely warm sea surface temperatures and aided by possible slow movement of MJO. Under the current context we can confirm Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal looks a firmer possibility compared to one in Laccadive Sea adjoining the areas near Maldives as some models are expecting. We will update on the evolution of this tropical disturbance as more clarity emerges over the next day or two.
In the meanwhile moderately hot conditions are likely to continue over Tamil Nadu though temperatures are expected to stay slightly on the higher side compared to the last couple of days. Early part of the day could see partly cloudy skies which could increase the humidity and make it slightly uncomfortable in terms of feel.