Most of us need no introduction to the புலி வருது புலி வருது folklore in Tamil. The Boy who cried wolf is one of the most popular stories in Aesop’s Fable. A boy who cries wolf regularly to garner attention through lying gets no help when the wolf actually comes. In today’s social media this becomes more relevant as we struggle to identify truth, lies and deceptive lies. As we get ready for an Active Northeast Monsoon period it becomes essential to point out in Disaster Preparedness we should always be ready for the wolf. Interestingly பெருஞ்சித்திரனார் in புறநானூறு gave a different context to the புலி வருது. A mother unable to offer food comforts her hungry child about the Tiger coming and distracting him with the moon.
உள் இல் வருங்கலம் திறந்து அழக் கண்டு,
புறநானூறு 160, பாடியவர்: பெருஞ்சித்திரனார், பாடப்பட்டோன்: குமணன், திணை: பாடாண், துறை: பரிசில், கடாநிலை
மறப் புலி உரைத்தும் மதியம் காட்டியும்,
நொந்தனள் ஆகி நுந்தையை உள்ளிப்
பொடிந்த நின் செவ்வி காட்டு
It will not be a surprise if many have lost hopes on this year seeing an Active Northeast Monsoon. But at the cost of repeating it becomes essential to point out Monsoon dynamics play out at its own pace. In the Northeast Monsoon revival update a couple of weeks back we had suggested two periods to watch out. The first period highlighted was 7th to 13th November. We are at the cusp of this period under watch. Due to multiple vortex dynamics the anticipated heavy rainfall period has been delayed by a couple of days. Instead of 7th to 13th November this event is now likely to pan out between 11th and 18th November.
The elongated trough currently seen over Bay with two distinct vortex. The first one is over East Central Bay and the next over SW Bay. Gradually the SW Bay vortex is expected to become dominant strengthening into a LPA. This will also trigger the 1st phase of Active Northeast Monsoon starting from 11th November. Weather models indicate the arrival of MJO into Indian Ocean shortly. Moving west to east over the next 3 to 5 weeks is will remain favourable for Northeast Monsoon. During this period as things stand we could see three distinct rainfall events. The first one to start in 48 hours time and the last one possibly during the 1st fortnight of December.
The key take aways for the next 3 to 5 weeks are as below. Please note the timeline of events may be delayed or arrive in advance based on real time dynamics. Coastal Tamil Nadu should be ready for rains and more rains over the next few weeks. Late November / Early December threat of back to back cyclones persists.
- For the next 24 to 48 hours there is likely to be a lull in rains. This is due to the circulation off Sri Lanka coast consolidating into a Low Pressure Area
- The 1st phase of widespread active rainfall of NEM 2024 will start from 11th November. This rainfall period is likely to continue until 18th November.
- The heaviest rains for the upcoming week is likely to be between Nellore and Pondicherry as the LPA moves west towards coastal Tamil Nadu
- Under the influence of the weakening LPA drifting west and a fresh trough of low expected during the week 18th to 23rd November South TN and delta districts will see widespread rains during that week
- From 22nd November there is a high probability for the next widespread rainfall event across Coastal Tamil Nadu
- This is likely to coincide with possibly the first cyclone towards Coastal Tamil Nadu during the last week of November.
- Rainfall event likely to continue into the first fortnight of December. This period is likely to coincide with potentially a 2nd cyclone / Deep Depression to impact coastal Tamil Nadu.
- Over the next 3 to 5 weeks we are likely to see the peak rainfall period of Northeast Monsoon 2024. This period will also coincide with favourable MJO transit across Indian Ocean.