Almost exactly a year later and 3 Cyclone names later coastal Tamil Nadu is bracing itself for another Cyclone. IMD announced yesterday the Deep Depression near Sri Lanka is likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm later today. Upon intensification it will be named Fengal a name given by Saudi Arabia. It follows Dana a name given by fellow Middle East nation Qatar. Next in the roster is Shakthi a name suggested by Sri Lanka. As things stand it appears Shakthi may have to wait for some time to become the talk of the town.
For the next couple of days Cyclonic Storm Fengal will dominate the Tamil mainstream media headlines. And rightly so as well looking at how weather models are indicating progress for this deep depression. It is easy to forget the Deep Depression is still about 425 kms to the Southeast of Nagapattinam. Over the past 36 hours it has started to move Northward along the East coast of Sri Lanka. It is expected to continue the same trajectory and pace for the next 24 hours or so reaching east of Delta coast around afternoon tomorrow.
Looking at satellite images a combination of proximity to land and wind shear has put a brake on intensification. Convergence and Divergence charts indicate the system currently is at its optimal peak considering the location and proximity to land. Keeping this in mind it is fair to say today’s intensification to Cyclonic Storm Fengal may be the strongest point of its life cycle. But this in no way is a reason to drop our vigil on the rainfall front.
Yesterday’s COMK post mentioned about a possibility of near stationary movement when it reaches NE of Sri Lanka. There is increasing convergence among models now about this slow movement for a period of 24 to 36 hours once it reaches off TN Coast. There is also a gradual convergence also developing on potential landfall scenario over North TN coast. With the delay in movement we are potentially seeing the landfall over North TN coast around 30th November. This would mean for the next 4 days widespread rains are likely to continue over coastal areas of Tamil Nadu. After landfall with the remnant circulation moving further west interior areas also will enjoy some much needed rains.
The key take aways based on current conditions and model estimates.
- Deep Depression is expected to strengthen into Cyclonic Storm Fengal later today. Due to land interaction on one side and influence of wind shear no major intensification is expected for this disturbance as things stand.
- It is expected to reach East of Delta coast later tomorrow and likely to stay in the same region for a period of 24 to36 hours with near stationary movement.
- This potential slow movement / stall scenario may bring widespread heavy rains over coastal Tamil Nadu on Thursday / Friday between Chennai and Pondicherry.
- Cyclonic Storm Fengal is tentatively expected to make landfall over North TN coast tentatively on 30th November as a Deep Depression / Cyclonic Storm and move further west across interior parts of Peninsular India and subsequently into Arabian Sea
- Widespread heavy rains likely to continue over coastal areas of Tamil Nadu until Friday / Saturday.
- Delta coast likely to see very heavy rains today and tomorrow while coastal stretch between Chidambaram and Chennai may see heavy to very heavy rains tomorrow and day after.
- Interior areas of Tamil Nadu, South AP and South Interior Karnataka may see widespread rains from Friday till Sunday as the remnant circulation moves further west after landfall.
STAY ALERT, BE PREPARED, PANIC NOT