Yesterday the Deep Depression in Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclone Jowad and now lies at about 250 kms Southeast of Vishakapatnam. After tracking NW for more than 36 hours or so the system now has started to move roughly in a Northerly direction slowing down as well in the process. This slowing down is an indication of the cyclone getting ready for a recurve in the NE direction. The models were consistent in indicating the Cyclone may not actually make a landfall instead brush the coast of Odisha & West Bengal before fading away under the influence of the incoming Westerly Trough.
Additionally satellite image indicates the cyclone to be suffering the effects of increasing wind shear in the region which has already started to shear the bulk of the convection away from the circulation. Regular observers would remember Cyclone Nivar going through similar scenario before landfall. Even this year the depression that crossed just North of Chennai got sheared the previous night bringing heavy rains to Chennai. Due to this shearing depending on how close it is likely to move towards Odisha coast it could possibly give rains only to the coastal areas & not to the interior areas like a traditional landfall making cyclone.
Meanwhile Dry weather is likely to continue over North Tamil Nadu including Chennai as the winds change temporarily from Easterlies to Northwesterlies over North TN & Westerlies over South TN. Due to this temporary change in winds parts of South TN may see moderate to heavy rains, particularly over the districts of Kanyakumari, Tenkasi, Tirunelveli dts. Similarly a few places in West Interior TN may also see moderate to heavy spell of rains in one or two places. Places like Chennai may see fairly cool nights under the influence of the land winds coming in from NW. The winds are expected to change back to Easterlies around 8th / 9th which could bring a spell or two of rains over the coastal areas.