Yesterday’s Well Marked Low Pressure Area over South Bay gradually intensified into a Depression last evening as it continued to track in a Northwest direction as expected by most weather models. With the depression still in an area of moderate wind shear along with warm ocean conditions it is expected to intensify for a further 12 to 18 hours as it is likely to peak just as it nears North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
While there is some divergence among weather models on whether the system would make a proper landfall over the East coast, most models are consistent on a Northeast Recurve scenario along the East Coast. This is likely to bring potentially heavy unseasonal rains to not only parts of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh but also Odisha & West Bengal Coast as the convection gets dragged along by the incoming Westerly Trough that is expected to hit the Indian Sub Continent around 4th December.
Meanwhile Tamil Nadu may not need to worry too much about this particular disturbance as it is already at a distance of about 800 kms ESE of Chennai & is only likely to move further away from the TN coast in a NW direction. The only influence it is expected to make is to bring a spell of dry weather over the state, particularly to North TN & adjoining interior areas as the Bay depression drags the moisture towards it from the region.
Today we could see some isolated light to moderate rains over parts of South Tamil Nadu and a few interior areas. One or two places in the Western Ghats could see moderate to occasionally heavy spells. Chennai may continue to see dry warm weather with fairly bright sunshine likely during the early part of the day.