Most of Tamil Nadu woke up to the sound of rains which in many places started a little before midnight & continued right through the night. If one were to create a animated satellite map between midnight & early morning you might be excused if you feel the image looked static because of almost stationary clouds over the state due to constant moisture getting recycled from the Bay. The entire state was under cloud cover except for small portions indicating how widespread the rains were.
Interestingly this year’s Northeast Monsoon despite not recording any extreme rainfall episode yet continues to clock the numbers at a very brisk pace. October set the ball rolling with a very good performance which has continued into November. As of yesterday TN & PDC sub division has recorded 262.4 mm cumulatively since the season began on 1st October. With less than 200 mm to go for the seasonal tally to be it may not be a surprise if the seasonal tally is achieved before November comes to an end.
Even on the overall annual rainfall front most of the IMD observatories in Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry have reached 90% of their annual quota. Among the stations that have not yet reached 90% of the annual average so far both the Chennai observatories, Dharmapuri, Karaikal, Palayamkottai & Pamban are the ones which have less than 80% annual rains though Dharmapuri is possibly the only station which might feel left out in terms of overall rains for the year.
With the Low Pressure Area continuing to remain at the same area over Comorin Sea even as of today morning though many models expected it to be over Southeast Arabian sea by yesterday the relocation has not happened. This delay of about 12 to 24 hours is bound to reflect in the rainfall estimates as well by weather models as well. Considering how things are evolving we could possibly see the LPA locate to SE Arabian Sea today and gradually start its NW movement as it strengthens slowly.
Today widespread rains are expected to continue over Tamil Nadu though if the relocation happens the rains could be slightly lesser intense compared to yesterday. Simultaneously we might start seeing isolated heavy rains in the West Interior parts of TN and along the Ghats. Chennai will see intermittent light to moderate rains with increased intensity at times, particularly during the late night / early morning hours.
Tamil Nadu including Chennai could possibly wake up to a Wet Diwali as of now