With just 3 days left for the Southwest Monsoon statistical season to end monsoon dynamics over Indian Sub Continent looks extremely fluid with multiple circulations. On the one hand we have the remnant of Gulab meandering west over the Northern parts of Deccan Plateau as a Depression, on the other we have an impatient pulse from South China Sea that has moved into North Bay & is looking to become a Low Pressure today over the same region. Like an impatient Transport Corporation Bus Driver, stuck behind a slow moving truck, who goes on a never ending honking spree trying to push the truck off balance to over take him the North Bay pulse is exhibiting its impatient nature forcing the remnant Gulab pulse to find sanctuary in the safe waters of the Arabian Sea.
But like the Police Patrol hiding behind the curve on ECR who sneak upon unsuspecting drivers with their speed guns deterministic models indicate the arrival of an Anti Cyclonic Circulation at lower atmospheric levels in a week or so from now potentially indicating Southwest Monsoon has pretty much started its last act of this year’s play. Once the remnant Gulab pulse moves further west the fresh pulse in Bay may not make much headway as Indian Sub Continent is possibly going to see slightly less favorable conditions in the absence of better support from MJO over the Maritime Continent. In the event MJO finally finds some strength to vacate Maritime Continent and move further east it could possibly hasten the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon. So interesting times ahead to see a weather equivalent of cat and mouse chase developing over Indian Sub Continent.
In the meanwhile due to the North Bay circulation & also a developing North – South Trough or in other words an elongated circulation over South Bay we could possibly see moderate rains continue over the west coast today as well with isolated places in the Ghats seeing Heavy rains as well. For coastal places like Chennai the westward movement of the Gulab remnant & developing pulse in North Bay may open a window of sea breeze induced localized thunderstorms which are extremely isolated & fast moving in nature. Like the Table Mate ad goes it could be a case of பின்னாடி தெருவுல பெய்யுது, பக்கத்து தெருவுல பெய்யுது, அந்த பக்கம் பெய்யுது இந்த பக்கம் பெய்யுது ஆனா எங்க தெருவுல மட்டும் பெய்ய மாட்டேங்குது type of rains so if you are lucky enjoy the sudden sharp spell of rains.