The Rain Break for Chennai should extend till Christmas possibly, with only occasional isolated rains on the cards for extreme North TN. As things stand the rains would be restricted to around Pondy / Villupuram Latitude in the days to come. The earliest decent chance of some good rains for Chennai is when possibly a potential disturbance in the Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify and move in a NW direction towards Peninsular India around Christmas time. This aside the rain prospects are going to be far and few.
It would be prudent for the Government of Tamil Nadu to keep in mind North TN is going to face a firm deficit proposition for the third year in a row and plan accordingly for the summer. As one would see in the map below and the table the deficit for the districts of Kancheepuram, Thiruvallur, Tiruvannamalai & Vellore have no firm prospects of reducing in what ever remaining days to manageable levels.
The lake levels around Chennai are not any better compared to last year and is bound to be under stress for the coming summer. We hope for the sake of Chennai the expected disturbance around Christmas time indeed happens and possibly moves closer to North TN coast as models predict.
